Friday, October 22, 2021

step-by-step guide to teach you how to do your own research and find crypto gems

 Now it’s time to give back and share my experience with others. In this article, I will provide you with a step-by-step guide to teach you how to do your own research and find crypto gems. For this, you do not need any special skills and knowledge. All you need are patience and some determination.

So, let’s go!

Part 1 — Start With the Basics

If you are new to crypto, I strongly recommend that you start your journey with big and established currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. That’s because there are lots of resources on the internet to explore and most of them are free.

Where to begin?

I would suggest you start with reading the original Bitcoin Whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto. I also recommend reading the book Mastering Bitcoin by Andreas Antonopoulos. You can skip the programming parts if you are not interested in those. But read everything else to get a basic understanding of Bitcoin and blockchain technology in general.

As a result, you should have a clear understanding of various things such as wallets, addresses, private and public keys, how transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain work, etc.

After gaining enough knowledge and experience with large-cap cryptocurrencies (also try buying and selling small amounts), you will probably want to explore smaller cap projects. By now there are thousands of different projects and coins in the crypto space.

Part 2 — Look Up Information on the Project Website and Read the Whitepaper

For a majority of new or smaller coins in the crypto space, information is not as conveniently accessible as with the big and established platforms. For this reason, it is paramount that you do proper research.

Here’s what my researching process for cryptocurrencies looks like.

First, you want to find general information. For this start looking in the most obvious places such as a project’s website and whitepaper. Check for the following things:

1. Does the project’s website look legit?

This is a first sniffing test to check for any obvious weaknesses.

· Does the website list important information such as contact address, terms of use, privacy policy, etc.?

· How much content is there and is it up to date?

· Do elements on the page look broken?

· Does the site link to external pages citing the project?

· Watch out for poor grammar and spelling.

· Enter the page in https://www.urlvoid.com/ or similar sites to check its reputation and safety.

2. Search for a general introduction of the project and its branch of industry.

You need a clear understanding of what this crypto project is about, the industry it is aiming for, and what issues it tries to solve.

· Is the project aiming for a new or an established market? Is the industry or market growing or do a lot of businesses in that field experience difficulties?

· What do businesses in a given industry do and what are their pain points?

· Does this industry pick up on innovations quickly, or is it more traditional and hesitant when it comes to new technologies?

· Why and how does introducing blockchain technology help the people and businesses in this industry?

3. What does the coin or project do and what problem does it aim to solve?

Dig deeper and find out why the people behind the project think that what they do will help to solve an existing problem.

· How exactly does the project approach the challenges that the businesses in a field have? Does it make existing processes easier and faster? Does it help saving money?

· Which problems does the project try to solve?

· Taking a step back, does it make sense to introduce blockchain technology to solve the specified problems? A crypto project only has chances for success when it is an upgrade to the existing solutions. That’s because, without a significant advantage provided to the user, the currency will likely have difficulty reaching wide adoption.

· Based on the information you gather from points 2 and 3, do a SWOT analysis. What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and chances when it comes to the cryptocurrency you are researching?

4. What is the actual use of the cryptocurrency or token issued by the people behind the project?

This is very important from the perspective of an investor. A crypto project might have a very good use case.

But.

In many cases, the currencies or tokens that go with them have no real use. This in turn means that the coin or token has no real value, even when price trends look attractive on an exchange. As a result, they become objects of speculation and you should refrain from investing in them.

5. Do more research about the cryptocurrency or token behind a project.

As a potential investor, you should know as much about a token or currency, as possible. Here are a few more things to look out for:

· Is it a token or a coin? Does the project build on an existing chain or does it have its own blockchain? For example, many projects issue ERC20 tokens because they are built on the Ethereum blockchain. This ties into aspects such as chain technology and security. Many projects that built their own chains went bust after clever users found a way to exploit certain mechanics.

· What is the total amount of tokens issued, will there be a hard cap to the maximum amount? If the total amount increases over time this can have a negative effect on price. On the other hand, it is a plus when the developers have built a deflationary mechanism (e.g. when tokens get burned after use)

· How many tokens or coins will be held by the company behind a crypto project? You don’t want the team to hold a large amount as their decision to hold or sell will have a large impact on price action.

· Was there a pre-sale or any other action that let a few people accumulate a large amount of the token or coin? Again, you want to stay away from cryptocurrencies that have been gobbled up by a few big players beforehand as they can leverage this to manipulate the price.

6. What is the consensus algorithm of the chain a crypto project uses?

The consensus algorithm is a vital part when it comes to how decentralized a project is. This way you will know how centralized or decentralized it is. The more decentralized, the better.

Why is this important?

One of the most important use cases of blockchains is that they decentralize certain mechanisms or tasks which otherwise would be done by central servers. Trust in institutions and the participants in a network play a big role in this.

Depending on the algorithm, nodes in a blockchain can be run by several partner companies or a few whales. This means that a few parties have a lot of control over the whole system. For example, they can roll back the transactions on the chain.

7. Find out whatever you can about the team behind a coin.

Doing research about the team behind a cryptocurrency or project is very important. You only want to invest in something if you know that the team is qualified to handle all the challenges that might come its way.

· A few names plus some titles on the website are not enough. At a minimum, there should be sufficient information about the previous experiences, achievements, and qualifications of each team member.

· Do not be satisfied with just the information provided on the project’s website. Do more research and see if you can look up people’s profiles on platforms such as LinkedIn and Twitter. Check how active people are on these networks, what things they talk about, and so on.

· Reach out to the team and ask them your questions. If they come back to you and provide you with good feedback you will not only gather more useful information but also a feeling of how dedicated they are.

8. What does the project’s road map say?

Road maps help you to understand what a crypto project wants to achieve in a given timeframe. Keep in mind that software projects are often very complex so delays happen frequently.

· Expect things to take some time to materialize if the team wants to start from scratch. Delays of several months are not unusual. However, if developers constantly miss the timing for milestones, it is a bad sign.

· If the timeframe given in the road map is too short, it is probably not realistic.

· Beware that especially when you invest in the very early stages of a project it might take a long time for results to show. If your money is locked up in a smart contract this means you will have to be patient before there is a chance to turn your investment into profit.

9. Who are the strategic partners?

Established partners are vital for any crypto project because they help the team to tap into additional resources, get publicity, and learn from their experiences.

· Having many partners is good. But quality is more important than quantity. If a project has established a cooperation with a renowned company, official institution, or research institute, it will get a lot more credibility.

· Because it gives them credibility, crypto projects usually list their cooperation partners on their website. Analyze how cooperation is portrayed. As a rule of thumb, the more detailed the information the better.

· Don’t be fooled by a few logos. To make sure that the strategic partners mentioned by a project’s website are real, do more research. Check for press releases or other external sources that give information about the nature of the cooperation.

Probably you will not be able to find every piece of information listed in this guide for how to research a cryptocurrency.

That’s OK.

Try to find out as much as you can. As a rule of thumb, the more information a team is willing to publish about its project on their website and in their whitepaper, the more trustworthy it is.

Part 3 — Adding Other Sources Into Your Crypto Research

After you have covered the above points about the project, you need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

What do I mean by this?

Expand your scope of research away from the information provided by the developers and make use of other sources. These are your next steps:

10. Research a cryptocurrency’s competitors.

While points 2 and 3 are meant to give you an understanding of general market conditions and how the crypto project you are researching is fitting into that, it is also important to look at other existing projects.

· Are there competitors? Use Google search strings such as “crypto in [industry]” and “crypto [market] use case” as a starting point.

· If there are any competitors, how are they different from the one you want to invest in? How long have they been active and how far is their development compared to the one you are researching? To give some well known examples, check out the differences between Ethereum and Ethereum Classic, ZCash and ZCoin (Firo).

· This way, you can find out more about the project’s competitive advantage, its weaknesses, as well as other aspects. Maybe this will even help you to find other promising projects.

11. Search for more information in external sources.

This connects to points 7 and 9 in this crypto research guide. As important as it is that developers do proper marketing to get the message out, from your perspective it is even more important what others have to say.

· Check different sources for all kinds of information you can find. Sources can be news websites, analysts, and other businesses. Be creative in digging up information.

· By doing this you will be able to find information, the people behind the project probably don’t want you to know about. For example, has the project been hacked before? If yes, how did they deal with it? Did the team show unprofessional behavior such as careless use of funds? Did important members leave the project? Etc.

12. Social media are a very rich source for finding information about a crypto project.

Check whether the project is active on social media and if users are creating content about it. You can learn multiple things from doing so:

· Does the team have its own social media channels to get the news out? Are these channels well maintained?

· Does the team often update their progress in order to keep the community up to date and involved?

· Are there a lot of people talking about it? It is also a healthy sign if there is a lot of engagement not only from the users’ side but also from the developers.

· What is the general sentiment? Is the community friendly and helpful? Are they only interested in the price of the token or coin? What you want to see here is a positive atmosphere surrounding a crypto project.

· Be aware, though, that people who invest money into a token or cryptocurrency tend to easily get hyped and emotionally attached. In such an environment, people try to get something positive from even bad news. For this reason, it is important that you always take a calm look at things. I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH!

13. Check out Github.

Many crypto projects claim to be open source. As a result, they should have posted their code on Github. Check it out. While you probably cannot understand the code, you can still see on the insight page how many contributors there are.

· Are developers contributing regularly to the project?

· When was the last time the project code was updated?

After you are done with these steps you should have gathered a lot of information from different sources that list up the pros and cons of the crypto project you are researching.

Part 4 — Researching Ways to Buy a Cryptocurrency or Token

The fundamentals are looking good. You think you found a potential crypto gem.

But beware.

The best crypto project is of no use to you if some of the monetary aspects don’t add up. Here’s what you should look out for:

14. Find out how and where to buy a project’s token or cryptocurrency.

· How can you buy the token or coin? Can you buy them from an exchange or do you have to send money to a contract? In the latter case, there is a risk that your investment might get lost due to technical issues or fraudulent activities.

· For crypto projects with an ICO (initial coin offering), tokens usually have not been listed on an exchange before a certain date. When you invest in those tokens it means your funds will be locked up for a period of time. Are you willing to wait for that long?

· If tokens or coins are listed, you need to find out on which exchanges. If those are very small exchanges, it could mean a higher risk for you, because they are more likely to get hacked or go bankrupt.

· Also due to a low number of users on smaller exchanges, the token or cryptocurrency will probably not be very liquid. This means it could be difficult for you to sell when you want to cash out.

15. How high is the market cap?

If the market cap of a coin or token is very small, it means the price can be easily manipulated by the people who accumulated a lot. As a result, various pump and dump schemes may play out.

16. Is the currency supported by hardware wallets such as Ledger or Trezor?

This will influence how you can store your coins/ tokens. Usually, only well-established cryptocurrencies are supported by hardware wallets. For smaller projects, you can usually use dedicated wallets or keep your coins in an exchange. Both come with risks so make sure to inform yourself in order to find the best solution.

Part 5 — Wrapping Things Up

By now you should have a lot of information at your hands. Now it’s time to evaluate all the data you gathered.

Here’s what you should take into account:

· Not all the information you found might have the same quality or level of trustworthiness. For example, a comment by a random person on Reddit should have less weight than a press release.

· Also, some of the information you found will be more important and more useful to you than others. For example, news about a hack or everything that is directly related to the safety of your investment should be of greater importance than news about a new planned feature.

· Make a list with one column each for the crypto project’s positive and negative aspects. Summarize every piece of information and data as a bullet point. Then add them to the positive or negative column. This format helps you to easily get an overview and compare different aspects.

Based on your list, you will be able to find well-founded arguments for or against investing in a crypto project or cryptocurrency.

Final Words

Bear in mind that this kind of research can take a long time to complete. While in some cases it might not be necessary or possible to cover all of the points, I listed up in this guide about how to research cryptocurrencies and projects, your aim should be to cover as many of them as possible.

Because in the end, this is all about protecting your investment and avoid mistakes I made a few years back. I lost a lot of money because I thought it was not worth spending some time to make sure a project was legit.

I hope that you find this guide useful. Let me know what you think in the comments and feel free to post any questions.

Cheers!


https://ren-heinrich.medium.com/8-free-bitcoin-indicators-you-should-use-a06d66cbbddf

Monday, May 10, 2021

BTC affect china ?

比特币交易影响中国外汇储备吗?

Original 朱玮 绍榕 无知的爆米花 1/27

区块链安全服务机构PeckShield(“派盾”)在其《2020年数字货币反洗钱年度研究报告》中提出了耸人听闻的数据:中国2018-2020年三年期间通过比特币流出的资金达到450亿美元,超过中国外汇储备额的1.5%。我们研究后认为:第一,“派盾”的统计数据存在严重的问题且相互矛盾,中国流出和流入的比特币总体应当大致平衡;第二,通过不合法的地下交易所,中国“制造”比特币可以流向国外,相当于“出口”的比特币没有结汇而是将利润保留在了国外,并不直接减少现有的中国外汇储备,只是应增加而未增加;第三,打击虚拟货币洗钱的关键,对于允许虚拟货币交易的国家,加强对合法交易所的反洗钱监管责无旁贷;同时,无论一国是否允许虚拟货币交易,打击地下交易所都是抑制洗钱所要面临的共同问题。



本文重点分析五个小问题:

比特币是否可以用来向境外转移资金?

比特币交易是否造成资金外流?

比特币流出规模有多大?

比特币外流对外汇储备有影响吗?

比特币是否可以用来洗钱?

一、比特币是否可以用来跨境外流资金

通过不合规的操作,是可以的。但操作过程比较麻烦。举例而言,如果张三是中国国籍,他有 100 万人民币,他确实可以通过虚拟货币,将 100 万人民币换成美元,并存到自己在美国一家银行开设的账户中。他需要完成以下步骤:

第一步,张三需要在一家接受人民币交易的交易所开户(通常这些都是地下交易所,是中国政府明令禁止的),在其平台上通过 C2C 交易,把 100 万人民币换成比特币。

第二步,张三把比特币提出到自己的虚拟货币钱包。

第三步,张三需要找到一家接受外国人开户并可交易的交易所,在交易所存入自己的比特币,然后交易成可自由兑换的外币,并存入自己的国外银行账户。

上述三个步骤,第一步即违反了我国的监管法规,我国不允许银行体系帮助用户做虚拟货币的清结算,如果银行发现张三的转账是用来交易比特币的,银行会冻结张三的银行卡。

第三步恰恰是最难的环节,按照FATF的国际反洗钱标准,虚拟货币交易也要像银行那样遵从反洗钱的开户标准,因此,在实践中,美国等国家的合规交易所一般不接受外国人开户。在合规交易所开设账户,与在当地银行开设账户的条件基本相同。对于中国人而言,必须满足身份和住所两个要求,要么有交易所所在国的长期签证(如工作签证、学生签证)并同时有固定居所,要么有所在国的绿卡和固定住所。
因此,可在国外交易所合法开户的中国公民,仅限于持有国外绿卡、在国外留学或工作的群体。没有上述身份和外国住所要求的中国人,一般只能选择一些“监管洼地”去开设交易所账户。

二、比特币流出是否造成资金外流?

比特币从中国流出,并不造成外汇的直接减少,只是应当增加的外汇收入没有增加,对外汇储备的效果相当于向境外走私货物。中国公民张三用人民币买了比特币,然后在海外交易所换成美元,存到自己的美国账户。这个交易对外汇储备的影响,类似于在中国买了一颗钻石,不报关,带到海外去换成美元,存在境外银行。

相反,比特币从外国流入中国,恰恰可能造成中国外汇储备的直接流失
。例如,中国公民张三如果用合法换汇的美元从海外交易所买了比特币,然后转到中国的地下交易所,并换成人民币,则相当于进口商品未报关,而支付资金来自外汇,这意味着中国外汇储备的流失。

从目前的多方数据看,中国是“挖矿”大国,现实中存在中国挖矿生产比特币,之后在国际市场销售。对中国而言,比特币消耗了中国的电力、设备和人力,“出口”了比特币之后并未结汇,中国制造比特币的人力物力投入并未转化为中国的国家外汇储备。

从保护我国外汇储备的角度,如果大规模的比特币从中国交易所外流到国外交易所,并不意味着现有外汇储备直接减少,最多可以认为是应当增加但并未增加。相反,如果大规模的比特币从海外流入国内交易所,倒是存在消耗我国外汇储备的可能性。如果以某种政策将比特币等虚拟货币的交易纳入我国外汇结算体系,那么国内矿机所生产的比特币等虚拟货币交易到海外,就能够为中国增加外汇储备。

三、比特币流出规模有多大?

“派盾”严重高估了从中国流出的比特币
“派盾” 2020 年反洗钱研究报告中提及:“2020 年从中国交易所流出到国外交易所的资金总量达到 175 亿美元。以 BTC 为例,按交易时价,2019 年为 114 亿美元,近三年的流出资金总额超出中国三万亿美元外汇储备的 1.5%。”

“派盾” 的研究和统计方法,是首先分析出主流交易所的地址,然后按照地址统计交易所之间的虚拟货币流转。区分中国交易所和外国交易所的方法是根据交易所的主要用户群,并非根据交易所的注册地。考虑到 “派盾”未必能够获得交易所的用户信息,所以判断“主要用户群”的依据,很可能还是该交易所的发源地,以及交易所主要管理团队成员的国籍。

但 “派盾”所谓的 “BTC 流出资金” 之说,还是需要推敲一番。是否真的存在 BTC 大规模向海外流出?

从中国交易所流出的 BTC 来源有两种情况:中国矿场所挖出的比特币;中国用户从海外购买的存量比特币。
以 “派盾”报告中 2019 年数字为例,报告中说 BTC 流入国外交易所 114 亿美元。2019 年比特币产量为 65.625 万枚,如果中国产量占比为 60%(数据来源:BitOoda 和 Fidelity。https://www.8btc.com/media/624151),则共计 39.375 万枚。2019 年的价格从最低 3401 美元到最高 13017 美元(数据来源:coinmarketcap),即使每一枚比特币都按照最高价进行交易,当年中国挖矿全部售价总和也只有 51.25 亿美元。我们把当年所有交易日价格进行平均,比特币价格是每枚 7385 美元,中国全年挖矿全部销售额则为 29 亿美元。因此,2019 年中国全年的新增比特币销售价格总额约为 29 亿美元。

同理,2018 年中国产出总量 39.375万枚,当年所有交易日平均价格为 7601 美元,新增比特币销售价格总额约 30 亿美元。2020 年比特币于5月份产量减半,全年世界总产量约 45 万枚,中国总产量 27 万枚(仍然按照 60% 比例计算),2020 平均价格为 11056 美元,总计约 29.8 亿美元。
经过计算我们发现,即使这三年时间中国全部新增比特币都流向了海外,也只有 88.8 亿美元,离 “派盾”所说的 450 亿美元相差甚远。

如果按照 “派盾”所说,比特币等虚拟货币正持续从中国交易所流到海外交易所,那么按照 “派盾”所给出 2019 年 114 亿美元的规模,则当年流出比特币总量当为 154 万枚;同理,2020年 中国流出比特币 158 万枚。那么,中国势必在向外大量卖出存量比特币。

当前全球流转 1850 万枚的总量,假设中国用户持有 60%,即 1110 万枚,按照这个速度,7 年时间中国用户就可以出净比特币了。如果中国持币者按照这种速度向国外出售比特币,那唯一的解释就是,中国的交易所和用户并不视比特币为一种可投资、可获利的虚拟资产,而是把比特币视为过剩低端产品,抓紧一切时间向海外大规模倾销比特币。如果此情况为实,比特币就不会对中国的金融和货币秩序形成大的干扰,似乎也就没有禁止比特币生产和交易的必要了。当然,谁都知道,这不是真实情况。

“派盾” 上述《2020年反洗钱研究报告》与其另外一份报告的内容也是矛盾的。一方面,“派盾”《2020年反洗钱研究报告》指出中国交易所的比特币大规模转移到国外虚拟货币交易所,另一方面,“派盾”出品的另一份报告《2020上半年数字资产交易所合规性研究报告》同时指出,火币等几大交易所的持币余额在 2020 年表现相对稳定,并没有表现出大规模的净流出。对上述两个看似矛盾现象的唯一合理解释是,国内交易所与海外交易所之间的流动是一个动态的平衡。所以, 即使按照“派盾”《2020年反洗钱研究报告》所说从中国交易所流出比特币等虚拟货币到海外交易所,也并不意味着虚拟货币从中国用户的控制下,大规模转移到海外用户的控制下。可惜“派盾”并没有给出虚拟货币从海外交易所回流到国内交易所的数据。但我们推测,这种流动是双向的且数量较为均衡,并不存在一边倒的外流现象。

四、比特币可以用来洗钱吗?

对于犯罪分子而言,比特币比起现金还是具有一些优势,最大的优势是携带方便,转账方便, 而不方便之处是,比特币在零售环节用于支付消费难度很大。

1、比特币的地址可追踪性

犯罪份子之所以青睐比特币,当然是因为比特币无需托管到第三方、无需实名认证,只靠公私钥就可以收付款。中本聪设计比特币的初心也是这种无需第三方托管的财富持有模式和匿名隐私模型。但每一枚硬币都有两面。比特币设计的区块成链、交易成链、无法篡改等特性,又让比特币的交易溯源非常容易。因此,虽然比特币是非实名的,但通过对交易数据进行跟踪,就能够分析犯罪资金的蛛丝马迹和来龙去脉。

如果犯罪份子们工作、生活的交易全过程,全都使用比特币,那是难以追踪的,因为所有交易踪迹都是地址,无法与实名身份联系上。但犯罪份子们也需要买“面包”,他们也需要在合法的世界中生存,那就需要把比特币兑换为法币。毕竟,当前多数的零售商家还不支持比特币(一些支持的店家,也一定程度上实现了KYC)。而且,零售商家只要支持比特币,就必须实名符合 KYC。 

2、逃避地址追踪的方法:混币

由于比特币的地址可追踪性,犯罪分子要躲避追踪,就要采取“混币”的方法(也叫“滚筒”、“洗衣机”),将多个不同来源的比特币汇入同一个地址,然后再打乱汇出,合法和非法的比特币出现了地址混同,增加了追踪难度。

比如,Tom 是一名犯罪分子,他销售违禁药品获得了 2 个比特币,那么他就要在交易所里把这两个比特币换成美元。他不会傻到直接把 2 个比特币存入交易所,他会先把这两个比特币在多个地址上转移多次,这个过程可能使用软件,或者利用一些非法的平台服务,这个过程就叫混币,其目的是让警方无法追溯到比特币的来源。
从技术角度看,每一笔比特币都可以追溯到最初的源头,也就是产出的矿机,路径中的每一个地址都可以追查到。但由于比特币的交易结构上,左边的输入和右边的输出都可以是多笔,这就造成一笔比特币 UTXO 可能有多个源头。而混币服务就可能把合法的比特币与犯罪所得的比特币,混在一笔交易的输入中,那么这笔交易的输出,就再也无法分辨是否合法了。

3、逃避地址追踪的新币种
现在更多的加密货币在防追踪上做的更好,例如门罗币(Monero)、大零币(Zcash),古灵币(Grin)等,使用了零知识证明技术,对其地址和交易的跟踪几无可能。

4、反洗钱监管的关键是交易所、金融机构和商家,以控制兑换和消费环节

尽管犯罪分子可以利用混币技术或者新技术躲避地址追踪,但是,比特币需要通过交易所实现交易和汇兑,通过银行获得法定货币,通过商家进行消费,因此,终端控制是目前较为理想的方法。

经过混币之后的比特币,就可以充币进入交易所,换成美元,再提现,存入银行账户。随着FATF虚拟货币反洗钱监管规则的落地,现在美国等国家对虚拟货币交易监管逐渐严格起来。按照 FinCEN(美国财政部下属金融犯罪执法网络)的要求,汇入汇出交易所的比特币,都必须做 KYC,必须汇报本人、发送放、接收方的实名信息。所以,比特币洗钱越来越难。

目前,对抑制虚拟货币洗钱最大的难点是非法交易所,这些非法交易所是实现虚拟货币价值转移、兑换的关键。另外,银行和消费环节也要落实反洗钱要求。

五、如何面对耸人听闻的结论

中国古代文人常常追求“语不惊人死不休”,但那是为了写诗、写散文。如果新闻和研究也采用这种方法,读者就要被误导了。前些年,一些媒体报道地下钱庄案件,动辄“涉案金额”几千亿、几万亿,很多人误以为“涉案金额”等于中国的外汇流失。我们用常识想,如果一个地下钱庄就能让中国流失这么多外汇,一年有几百个地下钱庄案件,那么不仅中国现有的外汇储备要流失殆尽,中国今后几百年的外汇储备也都要提前被透支。

“派盾”《2020年数字货币反洗钱年度研究报告》认为中国2018-2020年三年通过比特币流失的外汇储备达到了450亿美元,显然又是一个耸人听闻的数字,确实有震惊天下的效果。但就事论事,回到虚拟货币和外汇流失这个问题上,我们研究后认为:第一,“派盾”的统计数据存在严重的问题且相互矛盾,中国流出和流入的比特币总体可能大致平衡;第二,通过不合法的地下交易所,中国“制造”比特币可以流向国外,相当于“出口”的比特币没有结汇且将利润转移到了国外,这个过程并不直接减少现有的中国外汇储备,只是外汇储备应增加而未增加;第三,打击虚拟货币洗钱的关键,对于允许虚拟货币交易的国家,监管机构责无旁贷必须加强对合法交易所的反洗钱监管;同时,无论一国是否允许虚拟货币交易,打击地下交易所都是抑制洗钱的必要手段。

最后,我们还要小小声明一下,本文是就事论事的讨论,绝不是为虚拟货币非法交易洗地,我们坚决赞同中国监管机关对虚拟货币的禁止性政策,并且认为对地下交易所应当继续保持打击的态势不放松,这样才能最大程度地防止通过虚拟货币损害中国金融秩序、货币秩序,保护中国居民的利益,防止被割韭菜。





Tuesday, March 16, 2021

3000元开店方案:(珍珠奶茶

3000元开店方案:(珍珠奶茶、果汁冷饮、特饮项目)

一.果粉类:单价:15元/包(1公斤/包)22包*15=330元

提子粉、杏仁粉、榴莲粉、荔枝粉、西瓜粉、草莓粉、水蜜桃粉、百香果粉、香橙粉、芋香粉、青苹果粉、哈密瓜粉、菠萝粉、芒果粉、柠檬粉、巧克力粉、木瓜粉,椰香粉,香蕉粉、巴西情人粉、番石榴粉,蓝梅粉

二.奶精: 单价:14元/包(1公斤/包)36包*14元=504元

三.奶茶粉: 单价:15元/包(1公斤/包)6包*15=90元

四. 果汁类: 单价:18元/樽 *18种=324元

葡萄汁、百香果、乌梅汁、草莓汁、菠萝汁、哈蜜瓜汁,水蜜桃汁,芒果汁,荔枝汁,黑加仑汁,西瓜汁,柳橙汁、巴西情人汁、木瓜汁、金桔柠檬汁、蓝梅汁、酸梅汁、奇异果汁

五、茶类:(共44元)麦香红茶(11元/包)*2包=22元、咖啡红茶(11元/包)*2包=22元

六.珠类:(1箱/12包) 单价:80元 (1.5公斤/包)2箱*80=160元 黑珍珠

七.椰果:(每种口味各1罐) 单价:25元(3.4公斤/罐)6*25=150元 青苹果椰果、哈蜜瓜椰果,草梅椰果,葡萄椰果,西瓜椰果,水蜜桃椰果

八.荔枝果酱、西瓜果酱、水蜜桃果酱、木瓜果酱 (1罐/38元)*4罐=152元

九.特饮类:(四味:葡萄、青苹果、菠萝、草梅)

350毫xxx然果珍珠(27元/件)*4件=108元、 (原料共计:1862元)

十、设备:(1139元)

手动封口机(350元/台)、开水桶(165元/台)、封口膜(60元/卷)

巴台匙(12元/个)、大摇盅(30元/个)、、

珍珠吸管60元/件、450毫升杯135元/件(2000杯/件)

320毫升杯125元/件(2000杯/件)

密封罐(6元/个*24个=144元)

珍珠匙(4元/支*2=8)、冰格(2.50/个*10个=25元)

中量杯14元/个、专用粉匙(5元/支)*4支=20元

招牌喷绘1张*80=80元、搅拌器(15元/支)、小珍珠吸管盒(45元/个)、

冰夹(3元/支*2支=6元)

中珍珠保鲜盒(10元/个)

共计:3116元

8000元开店方案:(珍珠奶茶、果汁冷饮、特饮、刨冰、沙冰、果冻布丁、西米露项目)

一.果粉类:单价: 15元/包(1公斤/包)26包*15=390元

提子粉、杏仁粉、榴莲粉、荔枝粉、薄荷粉、西瓜粉、草莓粉、水蜜桃粉、百香果粉、香橙粉、芋香粉、青苹果粉、哈密瓜粉、菠萝粉、芒果粉、柠檬粉、巧克力粉、木瓜粉,椰香粉,香蕉粉、巴西情人粉、番石榴粉,绿豆沙粉,咖啡粉,花生粉
、蓝梅粉

二.奶精:1大包 单价:300元/包(25公斤/包)2包*300元=600元

三.奶茶粉:10包、 单价:15元/包(1公斤/包)10包*15=150元

四. 果汁类: 单价:18元/樽* 23种=414元
葡萄汁、青苹果汁、百香果、乌梅汁、草莓汁、菠萝汁、柠檬汁、金桔汁、哈蜜瓜汁,薄荷汁,水蜜桃汁,芒果汁,荔枝汁,黑加仑汁,西瓜汁,柳橙汁、巴西情人汁、木瓜汁、金桔柠檬汁、香槟葡萄汁、蓝梅汁、酸梅汁、奇异果汁

五、茶类:(各5包) 500克/包 10*11=110元 麦香红茶(11元/包)、咖啡红茶(11元/包)

六.珠类:(1箱/12包) 单价:80元 (1.5公斤/包)2箱*80=160元 黑珍珠

七.椰果:(每种口味各1罐) 单价:25元(3.4公斤/罐)10*25=250元
菠萝椰果、青苹果椰果、哈蜜瓜椰果,原味椰果,草梅椰果,葡萄椰果,芦荟椰果,西瓜椰果,芒果椰果,水蜜桃椰果

八、草梅果酱、荔枝果酱、西瓜果酱、木瓜果酱、水蜜桃果酱 (1罐/38元)*5罐=190元

九.饮类:(四味:葡萄、青苹果、菠萝、草梅)168元

500毫xxx然果珍珠(42元/件)*4件=168元 (原料共计:2432)

十、设备:(3776元)封口机(300元/台)、刨冰机(800元/台)、搅拌沙冰机
(480元/台)、电热开水器30L(318元/台)、刨冰碗(200元/件)、长冰匙(75元/件)、封口膜(60元/卷)*1卷=60元、巴台匙(12元/个)*2支=24元、大摇盅(30元/个)、小摇盅(28元/个)、珍珠吸管60元/件(50包/件)、沙冰管40元(40包/件)*1件=40元、艺术吸管20包*5元=100元、450毫升杯135元/件(2000杯/件)、320毫升杯125元/件(2000杯/件)、密封罐(6元/个*27个=162元)、珍珠匙(4元/支*2=8元)、专用量粉(5元/支)*6支=30元、大量杯16元/个、中量杯14元/个、打包袋(25元/公斤*5公斤=125元)、搅拌器(15元/支)、冰夹(3元/支*2支=6元)、中珍珠保鲜盒(10元/个)、小珍珠吸管盒(45元/个)*2个=90元、冰铲(45元/支)、40升不插电保温桶(360元/只)、招牌喷绘1张*80=80元、冰格(2.50/个*16个=40元)

十一、布丁及果冻类:1132元
苹果、草梅、哈密瓜、椰香、芋香、水蜜桃、蓝梅、香橙、葡萄、柠檬、香蕉、巧克力、原味、菠萝,(27元/包)*14种*=378元:
咖啡冻,红茶冻,绿茶冻、水蜜桃、百香果、青苹果、芒果、椰香,巴西情人、草莓(28元/包)*10种=280元,龙眼香蜜(1罐/38元)*3罐=114元、150梅花啫喱杯包盖(330元/件)*1件=330元、小匙(1.5元/包)*20包=30元

十二、西米露 (共358元) 西米12公斤*9元=108元, 《露丝西米露:椰香粉、杏仁粉、(2种*各5包*15=150元)》,
250毫升杯100元/件(2000杯/件)

共计:7698元

你看你需要开那类型的,在、再细分下,我们可以给到你更专业的建议。
提问者评价
非常感谢。


奶茶店畴备工作

开奶茶店一般有哪些步骤?


提问者采纳
一个奶茶店的畴备工作主要分以下几个步骤:
一、行业分析。要对这个行业有一定的理解度,不要只看表面现象就想着要做,或是看到朋友或是别人做得好就以为自己也能做到。有些东西是不可复制的(某些
店生意很火,它的位置你有吗?有些店的生意很旺,它的管理水平你能做到吗?有些店回头率特高,它的品质你能做到吗?有些店很赚钱,它经历过多少风雨,你清
楚吗?),男人怕入错行,女人怕嫁错郎。就是这个道理。当你分析清楚这个行业的基本走势和行情的时候,再进行下一步的准备。
二、分析自己。俗话说:知己知彼,百战百胜!在这里说开可不是那么简单。
1、首先要分析自己的个人经营管理能力,运畴能力,性格心态,看是否适合当一个店的老板。这很重要!
2、其次评估自己的近环境:一是家人的支持程度;二是经济能力(看能做多少投资,会不会影响其它已有事业或产业,不要做到只剩下奶茶店了才知道奶茶不能当饭吃。);三是风险抵抗能力。
三、分析你所想开店的地方的行业情况(也就是了解你将来的敌人或是说战略伙伴),这就是知彼。一定要以实际数据来说明情况,这个要花一定的时间、精力和财力,希望想开店的朋友不要省了这一点工作。
四、开店的基本条件准备。
五、找铺。按自己的投资能力和竞争能力进行找铺,要看到现时的铺位情况,也要对以后发展情况作估算。要对铺位消费水平进行评估,低消费的地方不宜大投
资;同样的,高消费的地方不宜低投资。还有旁边或是周边有无同行,价格质量怎样,如果找的铺现在没有竞争,以后有无可能出现竞争者。特别是资金短少投资
者,这一点要认准了。在赢亏平衡测算里有条数据是对铺面的:铺租不要超过平均最低营业额的15%。
六、找到铺面后就可以确定产品菜单了。根据店面的消费水平及消费习惯和消费文化进行店面产品菜单的定位。确定好菜单的同时可以进行宣传资料的策划和设计。
七、店面装修。这也是按照你的投资额度及消费水平和产品搭配情况来进行装修设计并装修的。装修的风格要做到概符合消费能力,又显得舒服、卫生、简洁、大
方。特别注意吧台的流水设计,要根据产品需求和设备配备情况进行程序设计,操作流畅的同时尽可能考虑产品的更进和设备的添加所需空间。这里面也包含水电的
布局和水力电力要求(我碰到过一个店老板老是说会跳匝,我去了一看,呵,10KW的总设备,电力只供到3KW,不跳才怪)。
八、人才招聘
。很多人刚当老板的时候很高兴(哈,终于当上老板了!),清醒点,招人可马虎不得,宁愿要笨点的,不要太精明的,因为太精明的容易反骨。根据店面的可能工作量进行人员数量定位,尽量少用亲人。这个涉及到人力资源问题,这里不多详述。
九、生财设备的配备。这也是按产品菜单来采购的。好的高质量的设备就能做出更多的上品质的产品,而且能提高速度和效率。就是我现在的店也会因为设备原因
无法做出更多更好的好产品。遇到过很多人问开个奶茶店设备要多少钱?我说一万到十万的时候,对方说:你不懂。我只能说我不懂了。店面设备要和店面水力电力
拾配得上,特别是店面小的步行街区,要考虑另找厨房的配备协调。生财设备的配备应该基本和店面装修同步。
十、当装修进行到七七八八时,就可以
进原料了(当时设备应该已经全部到位)。原料全部到位也是装修完毕之时,这时人员招聘也基本到位,即可进行产品调试和操作培训。操作和技术是两回事。一般
的操作是傻瓜型的,就是已经成为半成品的产品拼配。而技术则是半成品的前期泡制工作。技术主要由老板或是老板亲信来撑控。如果是加盟的也是这样去实施这一
步骤。我记得台湾的某一奶茶品牌进行加盟说明磋商的时候明确指定老板一定要带一亲信或是夫妻俩一起就是这个道理。
十一、产品调试完毕即可试业,分内部试业和对外试业。试业可以进行员工的分工并熟练程序,提高速度和效率。同时做好开业的准备。
十二、吉日开张和宣传。(这个很多人都懂,就不多说。)
下一步就是:用心经营。
再说奶茶技术
在这里,我要说说怎样才是真正的奶茶技术。根据我所了解到的情况,现在的奶茶技术已经开始分成很多流派,繁杂而乱。自从奶茶从台湾传入大陆,已经发展出
很多种奶茶的花样做法。现在我所在地广州奶茶的调味技术已经结合调酒工艺要求来操作,我也很着重于这方面的提升。因为能把调酒工艺应用到饮品(和别是奶
茶)里,是一种质的飞跃,也是一种艺术享受。如果有人跟我说喝街头小摊上一元一杯的奶茶是一种艺术享受,我相信那个小摊老板很快就亏本走人。
学奶茶技术,首要的是要学会品味各式奶茶。
要了解真正的所谓奶茶,先从其主要配方成份拆分来说明,它的主要成份就有:奶粉、茶叶、糖、水(及冰)、香料(珍珠奶茶还包括珍珠)。不要小看了这里边
的每一个单位元素,就拿水来说,不同的水做的奶茶味道相差很远!你用的是自来水?还是矿泉水?还是山泉水?海水?过滤水(一道过滤?二道过滤?三道、五
道、八道---过滤?)?冰也是,制冰的程序也会严重影响每杯奶茶的品质。当你对这几样成份所需原料了如指掌,并懂得其中的原理及变化应用,那你就算是真
正的开始懂得奶茶技术了。要说懂得更深的就是知道大量厂商的原料的基础成份和特性(呵呵,是不是很难?厂家的,别来砸我啊,这是事实吧?)。现在网上流行
的厂商或是加盟公司教你的所谓怎么煮怎么调奶茶的方法,不会告诉你这些的。我晕啊!那是技术吗?当你拆分开来看奶茶成份表,你会发现,你原来学到的奶茶技
术一文不值。按调酒技术的要求,要配出一杯好喝的奶茶,要基本懂得以下几点:
1、学会品味奶茶;
2、原料成份配方;
3、、调味份量与时间;
4、设备的应用 与调味火候;
5、调味手法;
6、奶茶的保存;
7、奶茶的包装要求;
8、奶茶的变化(包括样变与质变,比如:拉花。)



网吧畴备工作

开网吧首选就是要做好预算工程,网吧投资预算涉及到方方面面,所以说开网吧不是简单的事情,也不一定是赚钱的事情,尤其是当下网吧已经是夕阳行业,不如我们来做一份详细的2014网吧投资预算,我们拿一般的150台机器的网吧来分析。

一,网吧机器设备的投资预算:
3500元的电脑配置,这个大家根据自身需求自由搭配,现在的网吧购买电脑差不多就是这个价格,3500×150=525000元
电影服务器6630+ST120G×2×1=8000元
路由器:TP_LINKTL-R4000+5000元
交换机:TL-SG102424口全千兆2050×6台=12300元
其他水晶头,线路相关的合计1000元
二:相关费用
手续费:85000(武汉的价格自己办过户)
装修费:200元/平方米X4000=80000(中等装修包工料含电路网络)
房租:90000一年/半年付
水电安装:5000装修费用已含水电
电脑桌椅:300×150台=45000220×150台=33000
空调:3P×4×4000=12000
工商:600(每月)工商+文化+税25只报80台=2000月
三:人员工资5人*2000每月10000元,一般城市的价格
基本上网吧前提投资预算包括这些,还有很多细节的费用没有算,大额的基本就是这些,大家参考一下。


Wednesday, February 24, 2021

币圈黑话

他们到底在说什么?“币圈”黑话全解析
乐乐食品区块链 Yesterday
俗话说行有行规,道有道义,不同的人群中就连说话都有专门的方式,而他们之间也有同类人才懂得暗号,而有一句经典的暗号不知道大家听过没有?“天王盖地虎!宝塔镇河妖!”这句取自《智取威虎山》的名句算是江湖黑话的代表。同样的,如果你想深入的了解币圈,也还真要学会几句行内黑话,否则可能真不知道他们在说什么,今天咱就教你几句业内“黑话”,让你看懂币圈人在说什么。

何为币圈

随着区块链技术不断深入我们的世界,以此技术为依托,当然或者仅仅以此为概念的虚拟货币也逐渐被世人所了解,顾名思义,币圈指的是专注于炒币,或者发行和运营加密货币进行筹资的人群,业内俗称币圈。这个圈子可谓良莠不齐,有区块链技术的信徒,也有打着区块链的幌子搞诈骗传销的步伐分子。

黑话科普



币种

法币:法币是法定货币,是由国家和政府发行的,政府用信用来做担保,如人民币、美元等等。

大饼:比特币(BTC)的别称。

姨太:同“以太坊”,“以太”二字的谐音词,以太坊(ETH)别称。

柚子:区块链系统EOS.io中的代币EOS的中文谐音称呼, “类固醇以太坊”也是对EOS的戏称。

太子:比特币现金(BCH)的别称,可以视作比特币BTC的分叉币或竞争币,因此很多币圈的人都称其为皇太子。

辣条:莱特币(LTC)的谐音别称,莱特币也是比特币之后较早出现的山寨币之一。

空气币:没有任何技术依托的代币,号称能涨百倍千倍,常常通过一些手段短期内也确实有这样的效果,却往往在不长时间后崩盘。

传销币:拉人头获利,抄袭别人的开源代码,不更新代码也不公布项目进度,当然,更多时候根本没什么代码和技术,只是一个区块链的噱头。

Token:通常翻译成通证。Token是区块链中的重要概念之一,它更广为人知的名字是“代币”,但在专业的“链圈”人看来,它更准确的翻译是“通证”,代表的是区块链上的一种权益证明。



人群

韭菜:指不了解市场情况的散户。因为散户不了解市场情况且容易受到投资情绪左右,容易高位买入、低价卖出,而当一部分人亏损离场后又会有新生力量进入,就像韭菜一样割一茬很快又长一茬。

割韭菜:指庄家低位买入,炒高币价等散户进来后高价卖出获利,再砸盘砸到低位重复以上套路。而散户就像韭菜一样,割完又有新的一批入场。

项目方:发币的一方,拥有着大量的市场筹码,常常可以左右相关代币的币价。

链圈:指的是专注于区块链的研发、应用或区块链底层协议的人群。

矿圈:指的是专注于“挖矿”的“矿工”人群。

狗庄:在币圈通过操纵市场进行获利的人,通常也指币圈行经恶劣的骗子。

巨鲸:拥有大量资本和持币的投资者。

仓位

建仓:币圈建仓也叫开仓,是指交易者新买入或新卖出一定数量的数字货币。

锁仓:锁仓一般是指投资者在买卖合约后,当市场出现与自己操作相反的走势时,开立与原先持仓相反的

新仓:又称对锁、锁单。

全仓:指的是买币卖币都不分批、分次,而是一次性买入或卖出,并有了成交结果的行为。

空仓:把手里所持数字货币全部卖出转为货真价实的现金,在币圈,常常也把卖出波动较大的虚拟货币,持有USDT这样的稳定币视为“空仓”。

交易

拔网线:用户对于“交易所服务器故障”的讽刺,暗指交易所故意停掉服务器交易,使投资者无法及时交易,以达到某种不可告人的目的。

搬砖套利:通过各个交易所做中间商赚差价,从币价低的交易所买入数字货币,然后转到价格高的交易所卖掉。

瀑布:形容币价大跌,如同瀑布一样。

割肉:指虚拟货币在下跌时减持的止损行为。

腰斩:指某数字货币价格下跌到之前的一半,比如:从10元跌到5元以下,即为腰斩。

梭哈:币圈梭哈就是All in,指把本金全部投入。

币本位:指的是以数字货币作为结算的方式。

交易对:BTC/ETH ,这样的显示为交易对,指购买一个 BTC 需要支付多少个 ETH的意思,类似于黄金买卖中“克/元”的概念。

合约:是指买卖双方对约定未来某个时间按指定价格接收一定数量的某种资产的协议进行交易;合约交易是一种金融衍生品,它是相对于现货市场的交易,用户可以在期货合约交易中通过判断涨跌,选择买入做多或者卖出做空合约,来获得价格上涨或者下跌带来的收益。

空投:空投是目前一种十分流行的加密货币营销方式。为了让潜在投资者和热衷加密货币的人获得代币相关信息,代币团队会向指定地址或者随机地址进行其代币的转账,这样接受方仿佛有财富“从天而降”一般,所以称之为“空投”。

ICO:Initial Coin Offering,源自股票市场的首次公开发行(IPO)概念,是区块链项目以自身发行的虚拟货币,换取市场流通常用的虚拟货币的融资行为。

糖果:即各种数字货币刚发行处在ICO时免费发放给用户的数字币,是虚拟币项目发行方对项目本身的一种造势和宣传。

破发:“破”指的是跌破“发”指的是虚拟货币的发行价格,币圈破发是指某种数字货币跌破了发行的价格。

私募:和证券行业一样,币圈的私募是一种投资加密货币项目的方式,发起人募集投资人资金进行虚拟货币的投资。

杠杆:就是利用小额的资金来进行数倍于原始资金的投资,以期望获取相对投资标的物波动的数倍收益率,抑或亏损,有点类似赌博。

跳水:币价快速下跌,幅度很大,即价格走势像高台跳水一样在短时间内直线向下。

踏空:币价涨了,你没买、空仓没赚着,就叫踏空;币价上涨,而原来抛出虚拟货币的投资者,因某种因素没有及时买进,这种现象为踏空。

护盘:价格低迷、币种人气不足时,大户大量购买该币,防止币价继续下跌的行为。

白皮书:项目介绍说明书,公司产品介绍官方文件


Tuesday, December 1, 2020

great software

 onlyoffice

该软件在测试种与 微软的office 格式100%兼容


handbrake

视频格式转换器


ShortCut

这是当前是我所使用的最好的免费开源的视频剪辑软件


Bitwarden

密码管理器


rufus

轻松创建USB启动盘


onlyoffice:https://www.onlyoffice.com/zh/

handbrake:https://handbrake.fr/

ShortCut:https://shotcut.org/

Bitwarden:https://bitwarden.com/

rufus:https://rufus.ie/

https://www.qubes-os.org/



世界排名前十的BT下载站

https://youtu.be/nUrEWfBX_4Y

免费在线看电影

https://youtu.be/KKOj17M683A

5款非常棒的免费软件 

https://youtu.be/j2_zqj99ozE

排名前10的谷歌精品插件

https://youtu.be/FNEn73wd_CE

十款Windows10精品应用

https://youtu.be/WJVUk9cgUDw

全球排名前五的VPN

https://youtu.be/YDDSylCXU3g